TY - JOUR
T1 - Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance
AU - Nicastro, Fabrizio
AU - Sironi, Giorgia
AU - Antonello, Elio
AU - Bianco, Andrea
AU - Biasin, Mara
AU - Brucato, John R.
AU - Ermolli, Ilaria
AU - Pareschi, Giovanni
AU - Salvati, Marta
AU - Tozzi, Paolo
AU - Trabattoni, Daria
AU - Clerici, Mario
PY - 2020/10/23
Y1 - 2020/10/23
N2 - Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase differences observed at different latitudes on the Earth. Such models consider known internal causes, primarily the periodic emergence of new virus variants that evade the host immune response. Yet, this alone is generally unable to explain the regularity of recurrences and the observed phase differences. Here we show that seasonality of viral respiratory diseases, as well as its distribution with latitude on the Earth, can be fully explained by the virucidal properties of UV-B and UV-A solar photons through a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism. Such an induced periodicity can last, virtually unperturbed, from tens to hundreds of cycles, and even in the presence of internal dynamics (host's loss of immunity) much slower than seasonal will, on a long period, generate seasonal oscillations.
AB - Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase differences observed at different latitudes on the Earth. Such models consider known internal causes, primarily the periodic emergence of new virus variants that evade the host immune response. Yet, this alone is generally unable to explain the regularity of recurrences and the observed phase differences. Here we show that seasonality of viral respiratory diseases, as well as its distribution with latitude on the Earth, can be fully explained by the virucidal properties of UV-B and UV-A solar photons through a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism. Such an induced periodicity can last, virtually unperturbed, from tens to hundreds of cycles, and even in the presence of internal dynamics (host's loss of immunity) much slower than seasonal will, on a long period, generate seasonal oscillations.
KW - Complex Systems
KW - Infection Control in Health Technology
KW - Solar Terrestrial Physics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85092308777&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85092308777&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.isci.2020.101605
DO - 10.1016/j.isci.2020.101605
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85092308777
SN - 2589-0042
VL - 23
JO - iScience
JF - iScience
IS - 10
M1 - 101605
ER -