Conditional survival of patients with stage I–III squamous cell carcinoma of the penis: temporal changes in cancer-specific mortality

Francesco Alessandro Mistretta, Carlotta Palumbo, Sophie Knipper, Elio Mazzone, Angela Pecoraro, Zhe Tian, Gennaro Musi, Paul Perrotte, Emanuele Montanari, Shahrokh F. Shariat, Fred Saad, Alberto Briganti, Ottavio de Cobelli, Pierre I. Karakiewicz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Purpose: To test the conditional survival that examined the effect of event-free survival on cancer-specific mortality after primary tumour excision (PTE) in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the penis (SCCP). Materials and methods: Within the SEER database (1998–2015), 2282 stage I–III SCCP patients were identified. Conditional survival estimates were used to calculate cancer-specific mortality (CSM) after event-free survival intervals of 1, 2, 3, and 5 years. Multivariable Cox regression models predicted CSM according to event-free survival. Results: After PTE, 5-year CSM-free rate was 78.0% and increased to 84.6%, 88.1%, 92.0%, and 94.2% in patients who survived ≥ 1, ≥ 2, ≥ 3, and ≥ 5 years. After stratification according to tumour characteristics, 5-year CSM-free rates increased from 85.9 to 95.4%, 79.0 to 97.1%, 78.9 to 90.0%, and from 54.5 to 86.0% in those survived ≥ 5 years, respectively, in T1N0, T2N0, T3N0, and N1-2 patients. In multivariable analyses, T2N0 [hazard ratio (HR) 1.68; p value < 0.001], T3N0 (HR 1.94; p value 0.001), and N1-2 (HR 6.61; p value < 0.001) were independent predictors of higher CSM rate at baseline, relative to T1N0. A decrease in all HRs was assessed over time in patients who survived. Attrition due to CSM was highest in N1-2 cohort and lowest in T1N0. Conclusions: Conditional survival models showed a direct relationship between event-free survival duration and subsequent CSM in SCCP patients. Even patients with non-organ-confined disease may achieve survival probabilities similar to those with organ-confined disease after at least 5 years of event-free survival since PTE.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)725-732
JournalWorld Journal of Urology
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2020


  • Mortality
  • Penile neoplasms
  • SEER program
  • Squamous cell carcinoma

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Urology


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