A combined anatomic and electrophysiologic substrate based approach for sudden cardiac death risk stratification

Background Although left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is the primary determinant for sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk stratification, in isolation, LVEF is a sub-optimal risk stratifier. We assessed whether a multi-marker strategy would provide more robust SCD risk stratification than LVEF alone. Methods We collected patient-level data (n = 3355) from 6 studies assessing the prognostic utility of microvolt T-wave alternans (MTWA) testing. Two thirds of the group was used for derivation (n = 2242) and one-third for validation (n = 1113). The discriminative capacity of the multivariable model was assessed using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (c-index). The primary endpoint was SCD at 24 months. Results In the derivation cohort, 59 patients experienced SCD by 24 months. Stepwise selection suggested that a model based on 3 parameters (LVEF, coronary artery disease and MTWA status) provided optimal SCD risk prediction. In the derivation cohort, the c-index of the model was 0.817, which was significantly better than LVEF used as a single variable (0.637, P